■ Step 7 of 21  ·  Pre-Goal Layer

Market Sizing + Budget Reality Check

Before you format your Goal, test whether the market can support it. A goal that fails the market math should be corrected before it enters the G-STIC sequence, not discovered after the Strategy is built on top of it.

Live TAM/SAM/SOM visual Revenue feasibility check Lever analysis included Feeds directly into Step 8
Run the reality check
Methodology by Arcalea · Reviewed by Michael Stratta, Founder and CEO · Last updated June 2026

Quick answer

Market sizing scopes the opportunity in three layers: TAM (the total market), SAM (the slice your offer can serve), and SOM (the share you can realistically win). This free calculator sizes all three from your inputs, then runs a feasibility check against your unit economics and target so you know whether the goal you are about to set is reachable before you commit to it.

Why this step comes before the Goal

The goal must be testable before it becomes the plan.

Most marketing goals are set from the inside out: last year's number plus a growth percentage. That approach ignores the single most important question: is the market large enough to support the goal at all? A goal that requires capturing 80% of your addressable market is not an ambitious target. It is an impossible one.

Step 7 runs the market math before the Goal is formatted. If the numbers do not support the target, the goal should be revised at this step, not carried into the G-STIC sequence as a structural flaw that will compound through every layer below it.

Critical check
Goal exceeds realistic market capture
A goal that requires an implausible share of SOM is not a stretch goal. It produces a strategy built to achieve something structurally impossible, which guarantees failure regardless of execution quality.
Common error
SAM estimate too broad
Counting every company in an industry as a potential buyer inflates SAM and produces an optimistic SOM that does not reflect actual ICP fit. The filter questions here force that honesty.
Budget signal
Goal implies a budget that does not exist
The revenue potential calculation reveals the customer acquisition volume required to hit goal. If that volume demands a budget your organization cannot fund, the goal needs adjustment before strategy begins.

Fill in the inputs and watch the market take shape

Market Sizing Calculator

Enter your best estimates. Arcalea uses actual search demand data and intent signals in a full QMA engagement. This tool gives you the model so you can test your assumptions before they become your Goal.

Revenue target
What revenue do you need to generate this period?
$

Total potential buyers ? This is your TAM proxy: the total number of companies or individuals who could theoretically buy from you. In a full QMA engagement, Arcalea pulls actual search intent volume, verified ICP counts, and competitive share data to ground this number. Enter your best estimate from a LinkedIn audience, industry report, or territory model.
Total companies or individuals who could theoretically buy from you.
ICP fit rate ? Of your total potential buyers, what percentage actually matches your Ideal Customer Profile? Factors: geography, company size, industry vertical, budget level, technology stack. Most markets have an ICP fit rate between 10% and 40%.
What % of total potential buyers actually match your ICP criteria? (Serviceable Addressable Market)
%
Typical range: 10% to 40% for most B2B markets
Realistic capture rate ? Of your ICP-qualified buyers, what percentage can you realistically reach and convert in your planning period? Factors: brand awareness, competitive intensity, sales capacity, channel reach. Year-one capture rates are typically 2% to 15% of SAM.
What % of your ICP buyers can you realistically reach this period? (Serviceable Obtainable Market)
%
Typical range: 2% to 15% in the first planning period

Close rate
Of qualified sales conversations from your SOM, what % convert to customers?
%
SaaS 5-15% Prof. Services 15-30% Enterprise 2-8% SMB 20-40%
Average deal size / LTV
Average first-year contract value or lifetime value per customer.
$
Your Market
Fill in the inputs to see your market take shape
TOTAL ADDRESSABLE MARKET TAM SERVICEABLE ADDRESSABLE MARKET SAM OBTAINABLE MARKET SOM
TAM Total potential buyers
SAM ICP-qualified
SOM Reachable this period
--
TAM
Total buyers
--
SAM
ICP-qualified
--
SOM
Reachable
SOM buyers --
Close rate --
Expected customers --
Avg. deal size / LTV --
Revenue potential from SOM --
📈

Complete all inputs above to see whether your market supports your goal and which levers move the needle most.

Inputs saved
Continue to Step 8 →

Step 8 turns your demand and market into a formatted G-STIC goal.

Save your market model

Save your inputs and return to refine them.

Market assumptions change as you learn more about your buyers. Save your current model and return with the same email to update it before you finalize your Goal in Step 8.

Where to go next

Continue the diagnostic.

With the market math confirmed, you have the foundation to set a Goal that is both ambitious and achievable.

FAQ

About market sizing in the G-STIC sequence.

Common sources: LinkedIn Sales Navigator audience estimates (filter by industry, company size, geography, job title), industry association membership counts, U.S. Census business data filtered by NAICS code, or your own CRM territory model. In an Arcalea QMA engagement, we pull verified intent data and actual search demand volume for the specific problem your offering solves, which is a more accurate signal than static buyer counts. The hover tooltip on that field explains what we look for. For this tool, any credible estimate grounded in a real data source is sufficient to test your goal logic.

For most B2B businesses in the first planning period, a realistic SOM capture rate is between 2% and 15% of SAM. The upper end applies when you have strong brand awareness, an established sales motion, and a short buying cycle. The lower end is appropriate for new markets, long enterprise cycles, or competitive categories with high switching costs. If your model requires a SOM capture rate above 25% to hit your goal, the goal almost certainly needs to be revised or the timeline extended. Very few organizations outside of dominant market incumbents achieve that capture rate in a single planning period.

Use whichever unit your Goal is denominated in. If your Goal is first-year revenue, use average first-year contract value. If your Goal is total revenue over a 3-year period, use 3-year LTV. The critical thing is consistency: the number you enter here should match the metric in your Goal so the comparison in the output is apples-to-apples. If you are unsure, use first-year contract value, since that is the most common planning horizon and the easiest to defend to finance leadership.

Yellow means your revenue potential from SOM is within 30% of your stated goal in either direction: you either have thin headroom or a modest gap. This is not a failure state. It means the goal is achievable under your current assumptions, but it has very little margin for error. Any slippage in close rate, deal size, or market reach will push you into a shortfall. Yellow is an appropriate signal to review your assumptions carefully, stress-test the SOM capture rate specifically, and consider whether the goal should be adjusted to build in a meaningful buffer before it enters the G-STIC sequence.

The revenue potential figure from this tool directly informs the Benchmark component in Step 8. The Benchmark requires a specific numeric target and a scientific reference point. Your SOM-derived revenue potential is that reference point: it is the number the market math says is achievable under your stated assumptions. A goal set meaningfully above or below that figure should have an explicit rationale, not just a gut check. Think of Step 7 as the quantitative grounding that makes your Step 8 Benchmark defensible to your CFO and your board.

References
The TAM/SAM/SOM market sizing framework is standard practice in strategic planning and is applied here as part of the Arcalea Marketing Planning Diagnostic. The G-STIC planning framework (Goal, Strategy, Tactics, Implementation, Control) is based on the work of Alexander Chernev at the Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University. The market-to-goal feasibility check is Arcalea's prescriptive application of both frameworks as a pre-Goal gate in the 21-step diagnostic sequence.
TAM / SAM / SOM market sizing · Unit economics: CAC, LTV, payback · G-STIC marketing planning framework (Alexander Chernev; Kellogg School of Management)
Reviewed by Michael Stratta, Founder and CEO, Arcalea. Last updated June 2026.